Three risks run through the working files in Ontario's mineral-exploration queue: a decision that comes late, a pause while the Ministry consults affected Indigenous communities, and the chance that the window a forecast covers closes with no decision at all. As of , here is where each risk sits, file by file. The stalled files carry no dates anywhere on this page; they appear only as a count.
The two timing risks move together: the further out a file's likely decision, the better the odds the window closes with nothing decided.
Each dot is one working file, placed at its most likely decision date and at the chance that the window its forecast covers closes with no decision. The top-right corner is the danger corner: files that are both late and likely to go unresolved. Ochre dots are the files paused while the Ministry consults affected Indigenous communities; their date covers when the file moves again and reaches a decision, nothing about the consultation itself. Lighter dots are the files whose public comment period is still open. files sit past the -month edge of the chart; arrows mark them at their own heights. Hover any mark for the file's 80% credible interval, or click through to its page. How often ranges like these have contained the actual decision date is on the track record page.
A file whose clock is running can still change tracks: of the files with the clock running carry at least a one-in-four chance of being pulled into a consultation pause before a decision. That number is the chance the file's track changes, nothing more; no view on any consultation is offered here or anywhere else in this issue. Highest on the board: .
The highest chances, one bar per file; lighter bars are files whose comment period is still open. The other files with the clock running sit lower, from down to . The files already paused are not on this strip; their risk has already arrived.
Every working file carries three chances that sum to one: issued with terms, not approved within scope, and no decision within the window the forecast covers. Averaged across all working files, the queue splits like this:
These are per-permit probabilities averaged over the queue, not a tally of anything. A single file can sit far from all three figures; the dots and bars above show which ones do.
Which month the likely decisions land in is on the decision calendar. Every file, including the with no clock, is in the table.