Kestrel Economics · Bulletin 2026 no.1 · Every permit

Every permit

Every pending mineral-exploration file in Ontario, in one table: rows as of the registry snapshot, fastest first. Files with a live clock are ordered by when their decision window opens; the stalled files sit at the bottom, date-free. The tabs filter by status, or switch to a view grouped by proponent.

How to read the table. Applied is the date the application reached the Environmental Registry. Waiting is how long the file has sat in its current state as of ; it is a fact, not a forecast. Chance issued is the chance the permit is issued with terms within the period the forecast covers. Decision likely between is an 80% credible interval on the decision date; files whose public comment period is still open carry provisional forecasts until it closes. Files paused for consultation are waiting while the Ministry consults affected Indigenous communities; their range covers when the file is likely to move again and reach a decision, and says nothing about the consultation itself. Stalled files get no date anywhere in this issue; a date on a file that has not moved in years would be false precision. In the proponent view, highest pause chance is the largest chance, among a proponent's clock-running files, of being pulled into a consultation pause. How often these intervals have contained the actual decision date: track record.