Kestrel Bulletin

This week’s forecasts

6 files entered coverage on Friday 23 October 2026

153 Ontario exploration permits are waiting on a decision in all. The ones below are those first forecast this week; the others carry ranges published in earlier weeks, and each is graded against its own first range. Every range is an 80% credible interval: the model puts an eight-in-ten chance on the decision being posted to the register between the earliest and latest dates shown. The middle date is the one the model thinks the decision is as likely to come before as after.

The permit number links to the file’s notice on the public register. Running means the registry’s clock is running on the file; stopped means the registry has put it on hold. A held file is one the registry has stopped the clock on. In this permit type that is almost always consultation with an Indigenous nation. Kestrel forecasts the timing consequence of a hold and says nothing about the adequacy or the course of any consultation. The bars share one scale, drawn as a square root of days so a short range and a range of years both stay readable.