Every live forecast

Every permit application Kestrel is currently forecasting, one row each, with the range published for it. Nothing is held back and nothing is hidden for being awkward: when these files are decided they move to the Track record tab, whether the forecast was right or wrong.

The list is indexed by register number only. There is no company or project index on this site.

Two clocks, and one window

Days waiting counts from the day the application was filed. What we forecast counts from the Friday the file entered our coverage, which for most of these is not the same day. A file that has been waiting four years can still be forecast to be decided next month.

The model looks ahead a fixed distance for each file, and that distance differs from file to file. Where it puts more than half its chances on a file still being undecided when that window ends, there is no honest middle date to print, so the row gives the chance of a decision by the early date and the chance the file is still undecided at the end of the window. That is the whole of what the model claims about those files, said in words rather than dressed up as a date.

Held means the registry has stopped the clock, in this permit type almost always for consultation with an Indigenous nation. Kestrel forecasts the timing consequence and says nothing about the adequacy or the course of any consultation.

Full method, including how these forecasts are graded once the register decides: the Method page.