Kestrel Economics · Bulletin Beta Changelog

Changelog

Everything the record has done, with its date. Generated from the record's own event tables, not written by hand: a changelog somebody types is a changelog somebody can forget to type on a bad week.

Decisions, weekly forecasts and struck questions cover the permit types the record admits. Admissions and revocations cover every permit type, including the five revoked on Aug 13, 2026, because that list names no permit and leaving it out would make this site read better than the truth.

What the entries mean

Decision. The register decided a file we were forecasting. The date is the day the registry decided; where we saw it later, the entry says when we observed it.

Forecast. A week's cohort, and how many files it covered. Forecasts run on a Friday vintage and are published after it closes.

Record. A permit type admitted to the record, or revoked from it. A revocation means we stopped standing behind a model, and it is published with the reason.

Struck. A question annulled or found unresolvable. Annulled means it should never have been asked, so no forecast on it counts for or against us. Unresolvable means the question was fair but the register never published anything that could settle it.

Refused. A forecast the record turned away before it entered. The reason is the useful part: it says what the record checks before it will accept a claim.

Withdrawn. A published forecast withdrawn because it was produced with a defect we can demonstrate without reference to how it scored. Never because it scored badly.