This week / Ontario exploration permit
An individual proposes mechanized drilling on 6 mining claims covering 125 hectares in Thunder Bay District, about 13 kilometres north of Caramat and about 27 kilometres east of Longlac.
The model puts an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 30 Nov 2026 and 18 May 2030 (our 80% credible interval, shortened elsewhere to the 80% range).
Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
Some factors about how the ministry handles the file are used but not shown here.
Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker.
Showing all 2 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
None of the questions we have asked about this application has been settled yet. The first to settle is whether it is decided by 29 Jan 2027.
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 125 hectares in all.