Issued on 22 Oct 2026the day the decision was posted to the registry
49 daysfrom when it was posted on 3 Sep 2026 to the decision
The permit itself is dated 21 October 2026. Our forecasts are graded against 22 October 2026, the day the decision was posted to the registry.
How our forecast did
Our last forecast before the decision, made on 16 October 2026, put an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 20 Oct 2026 and 18 Apr 2030, with a middle date of 28 Nov 2026. It was issued on 22 October 2026, inside that range: 37 days earlier than the middle date.
Issued 22 Oct 2026
16 Oct 2026Dec 2026Oct 2027Oct 2028Oct 2030
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% range
The curve is the forecast made 16 October 2026; the dark line is the real date. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
3 of 3 weekly forecasts of this application had the real date inside their 80% range.
The other questions that forecast answered
As we said
On 16 October 2026 we gave a 65% chance that it would be decided by 15 January 2027. It was issued before then.
As we said
On 16 October 2026 we gave a 75% chance that it would be decided by 16 April 2027. It was issued before then.
As we said
On 16 October 2026 we gave a 79% chance that it would not be put on hold first. It was issued without a hold.
As we said
On 16 October 2026 we gave a 89% chance that it would be issued. It was issued.
How the forecast moved
Forecasts for this application side by side, up to the last one before the decision. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the last is shaded darker. The dashed line across is the real date, 22 October 2026.
Jan 2027Jul 2027Jan 2028Jul 2028Jan 2029Jul 2029Jan 2030
Showing all 3 Friday forecasts made before the decision.
What pushed it earlier or later
In the last forecast before the decision, the named factors that moved the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms)−24 days
The plan includes drilling+11 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months−8 days
Applied in 2023 or later+7 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area−4 days
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year−2 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision)+1 day
Applications waiting at the same ministry office+1 day
The applicant’s earlier permits−1 day
Some factors about how the ministry handles the file are used but not shown here.
Not counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
The application so far
18 Aug 202622 Oct 2026
Open for public commentUnder review
18 Aug 2026Application submitted to the ministry
16 days later
3 Sep 2026Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
3 Oct 2026Public comment closed
19 days later
22 Oct 2026Decided: approved
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
The registry's own map places this application about 72 kilometres from the mining claims it lists. We cannot tell which place is right, so we show no map.
What the application asks for
Activities
Mechanized stripping (over 100 square metres within a 200 metre radius)
Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mining claims covered
11
Area of those claims
1,004 hectares
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
1 application held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; 1 application put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
1
Workload at the ministry office handling it
112 applications waiting; it decided 49 in the past six months
Applicant
An individual
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
2
Published Mondays, noon Toronto timeKestrel EconomicsBULLETIN