Issued on 15 Oct 2026the day the decision was posted to the registry
42 daysfrom when it was posted on 3 Sep 2026 to the decision
The permit itself is dated 14 October 2026. Our forecasts are graded against 15 October 2026, the day the decision was posted to the registry.
How our forecast did
Our last forecast before the decision, made on 9 October 2026, put an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 22 Oct 2026 and the furthest date the model looks ahead, with a middle date of 17 Mar 2027. It was issued on 15 October 2026, outside that range, before it began: 153 days earlier than the middle date.
Issued 15 Oct 2026
9 Oct 2026Dec 2026Oct 2027Oct 2028Oct 2030
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% range
The curve is the forecast made 9 October 2026; the dark line is the real date. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
0 of 2 weekly forecasts of this application had the real date inside their 80% range.
The other questions that forecast answered
Not as we said
On 9 October 2026 we gave a 58% chance that it would not be decided by 8 January 2027. It was issued before then.
As we said
On 9 October 2026 we gave a 51% chance that it would be decided by 9 April 2027. It was issued before then.
As we said
On 9 October 2026 we gave a 60% chance that it would not be put on hold first. It was issued without a hold.
As we said
On 9 October 2026 we gave a 76% chance that it would be issued. It was issued.
How the forecast moved
Forecasts for this application side by side, up to the last one before the decision. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the last is shaded darker. The dashed line across is the real date, 15 October 2026.
2027202820292030203120322033
2 OctFirst forecast9 OctPublic comment closed
Issued 15 Oct 2026, the real date
Showing all 2 Friday forecasts made before the decision.
What pushed it earlier or later
In the last forecast before the decision, the named factors that moved the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms)−68 days
The plan includes drilling+18 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months−18 days
Applied in 2023 or later+12 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area−7 days
Size of the application (29 mining claims)−4 days
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year+3 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision)+2 days
The applicant’s earlier permits+2 days
Applications waiting at the same ministry office−1 day
Some factors about how the ministry handles the file are used but not shown here.
Not counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
The application so far
3 Sep 202615 Oct 2026
Open for public commentUnder review
3 Sep 2026Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
3 Oct 2026Public comment closed
12 days later
15 Oct 2026Decided: approved
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
1 km
Where in Ontario
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 589 hectares in all.
What the application asks for
Activities
Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mining claims covered
29
Area of those claims
589 hectares
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
none held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; none put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
1
Workload at the ministry office handling it
112 applications waiting; it decided 49 in the past six months
Applicant
A mid-sized mining company
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
2
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