How our forecast did
Our last forecast before the decision, made on 23 October 2026, put an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 25 Oct 2026 and 13 Jun 2030, with a middle date of 20 Dec 2026. It was issued on 26 October 2026, inside that range: 55 days earlier than the middle date.
23 Oct 2026Dec 2026Oct 2027Oct 2028Oct 2030
Middle half of the chances (50%) 80% range
The curve is the forecast made 23 October 2026; the dark line is the real date. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
8 of 8 weekly forecasts of this application had the real date inside their 80% range.
The other questions that forecast answered
- As we said
On 23 October 2026 we gave a 63% chance that it would be decided by 22 January 2027. It was issued before then.
- As we said
On 23 October 2026 we gave a 73% chance that it would be decided by 23 April 2027. It was issued before then.
- As we said
On 23 October 2026 we gave a 80% chance that it would not be put on hold first. It was issued without a hold.
- As we said
On 23 October 2026 we gave a 88% chance that it would be issued. It was issued.
How the forecast moved
Forecasts for this application side by side, up to the last one before the decision. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the last is shaded darker. The dashed line across is the real date, 26 October 2026.
4 SepFirst forecast2 OctPublic comment closed9 OctForecast moved23 OctLast forecast; forecast moved
Issued 26 Oct 2026, the real date
Showing 4 of 8 Friday forecasts made before the decision: the first, the last, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
What pushed it earlier or later
In the last forecast before the decision, the named factors that moved the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms) −24 days
The plan includes drilling +14 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months −8 days
Applied in 2023 or later +7 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area −4 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision) +1 day
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year +1 day
Applications waiting at the same ministry office +1 day
Some factors about how the ministry handles the file are used but not shown here.
Not counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
The application so far
1 Sep 202626 Oct 2026
Open for public comment
Under review
- 1 Sep 2026 Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
- 4 weeks later
- 1 Oct 2026 Public comment closed
- 4 weeks later
- 26 Oct 2026 Decided: approved
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.