Issued on 28 Sep 2026the day the decision was posted to the registry
43 daysfrom when it was posted on 16 Aug 2026 to the decision
How our forecast did
Our last forecast before the decision, made on 25 September 2026, put an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 2 Oct 2026 and 29 Dec 2028, with a middle date of 25 Nov 2026. It was issued on 28 September 2026, outside that range, before it began: 58 days earlier than the middle date.
Issued 28 Sep 2026
25 Sep 2026Oct 2026Mar 2027Sep 2027Sep 2028
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% range
The curve is the forecast made 25 September 2026; the dark line is the real date. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
3 of 6 weekly forecasts of this application had the real date inside their 80% range.
The other questions that forecast answered
As we said
On 25 September 2026 we gave a 58% chance that it would be decided by 25 December 2026. It was issued before then.
As we said
On 25 September 2026 we gave a 71% chance that it would be decided by 26 March 2027. It was issued before then.
As we said
On 25 September 2026 we gave a 73% chance that it would not be put on hold first. It was issued without a hold.
As we said
On 25 September 2026 we gave a 83% chance that it would be issued. It was issued.
How the forecast moved
Forecasts for this application side by side, up to the last one before the decision. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the last is shaded darker. The dashed line across is the real date, 28 September 2026.
Showing 3 of 6 Friday forecasts made before the decision: the first, the last, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
What pushed it earlier or later
In the last forecast before the decision, the named factors that moved the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms)−51 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months+27 days
The plan includes drilling+24 days
Applied in 2023 or later+14 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area−8 days
Size of the application (1 mining claims)+6 days
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year+4 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision)+3 days
The applicant’s earlier permits+1 day
Some factors about how the ministry handles the file are used but not shown here.
Not counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
The application so far
16 Aug 202628 Sep 2026
Open for public commentUnder review
16 Aug 2026Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
15 Sep 2026Public comment closed
13 days later
28 Sep 2026Decided: approved
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
0.5 km
Where in Ontario
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 22 hectares in all.
What the application asks for
Activities
Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mining claims covered
1
Area of those claims
22 hectares
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
none held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; none put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
None
Workload at the ministry office handling it
6 applications waiting; it decided 14 in the past six months
Applicant
A junior exploration company
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
1
Published Mondays, noon Toronto timeKestrel EconomicsBULLETIN