Issued on 9 Sep 2026the day the decision was posted to the registry
33 daysfrom when it was posted on 7 Aug 2026 to the decision
How our forecast did
Our last forecast before the decision, made on 4 September 2026, put an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 13 Sep 2026 and 25 Jan 2027, with a middle date of 29 Sep 2026. It was issued on 9 September 2026, outside that range, before it began: 20 days earlier than the middle date.
Issued 9 Sep 2026
4 Sep 2026Sep 2026Nov 2026Mar 2027
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% range
The curve is the forecast made 4 September 2026; the dark line is the real date. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
0 of 4 weekly forecasts of this application had the real date inside their 80% range.
The other questions that forecast answered
As we said
On 4 September 2026 we gave a 85% chance that it would be decided by 4 December 2026. It was issued before then.
As we said
On 4 September 2026 we gave a 92% chance that it would be decided by 5 March 2027. It was issued before then.
As we said
On 4 September 2026 we gave a 91% chance that it would not be put on hold first. It was issued without a hold.
As we said
On 4 September 2026 we gave a 95% chance that it would be issued. It was issued.
How the forecast moved
Forecasts for this application side by side, up to the last one before the decision. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the last is shaded darker. The dashed line across is the real date, 9 September 2026.
Sep 2026Oct 2026Nov 2026Dec 2026Jan 2027
14 AugFirst forecast4 SepLast forecast
Issued 9 Sep 2026, the real date
Showing 2 of 4 Friday forecasts made before the decision: the first, the last, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
What pushed it earlier or later
In the last forecast before the decision, the named factors that moved the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
Applied in 2023 or later+1 day
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months+1 day
Inside the Treaty 9 area−1 day
Not counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
The application so far
28 Jul 20269 Sep 2026
Open for public commentUnder review
28 Jul 2026Application submitted to the ministry
10 days later
7 Aug 2026Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
6 Sep 2026Public comment closed
3 days later
9 Sep 2026Decided: approved
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
5 km
Where in Ontario
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 2,416 hectares in all.
What the application asks for
Activities
Not listed on the registry notice
Mining claims covered
111
Area of those claims
2,416 hectares
Surroundings
Workload at the ministry office handling it
6 applications waiting; it decided 22 in the past six months
Applicant
A mid-sized mining company
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
None before this one
Published Mondays, noon Toronto timeKestrel EconomicsBULLETIN