This week / Ontario exploration permit
A major mining producer proposes mechanized stripping on 1 mining claim covering 21 hectares in Sawbill Bay Area, Rainy River District, about 21 kilometres northeast of Atikokan.
The model puts an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 21 Nov 2026 and the furthest date it looks ahead (our 80% credible interval, shortened elsewhere to the 80% range).
Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
Some factors about how the ministry handles the file are used but not shown here.
Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker.
Showing 8 of 12 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble. At most 8 are shown; when there are more, the weeks with the biggest moves are kept.
On 24 July 2026 we gave a 50% chance that it would be decided by 23 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
On 31 July 2026 we gave a 51% chance that it would not be decided by 30 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
The registry's own map places this application 10.2 kilometres from the mining claims it lists. We cannot tell which place is right, so we show no map.