This week / Ontario exploration permit

026-0634

A major mining producer proposes mechanized drilling on 18 mining claims covering 849 hectares in Finlayson Lake Area and Sawbill Bay Area, Rainy River District, about 21 kilometres northeast of Atikokan.

Waiting on a decisionstatus

135 dayswaiting since it was posted on 17 Jun 2026

Filed together with 2 other applications

When it is likely to be decided

The model puts an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 23 Nov 2026 and the furthest date it looks ahead (our 80% credible interval, shortened elsewhere to the 80% range).

30 Oct 2026Dec 2026Oct 2027Oct 2028Oct 2030

Middle half of the chances (50%) 80% range

Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.

How it ends

Issued: 68%
Refused or withdrawn: 11%
Still undecided at the furthest date we look ahead: 22%

Key dates

A 1 in 10 chance it is decided by23 Nov 2026
Even odds it is decided by24 Nov 2027
A under 1% chance it is still waiting on25 Jul 2032
Chance it is decided within 3 months, by 29 Jan 202724%
Chance it is decided within 6 months, by 30 Apr 202738%
Chance it is put on hold before a decision50%

What pushes it earlier or later

The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.

EarlierLater

Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms) −91 days

The plan includes drilling +36 days

Applied in 2023 or later +24 days

How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months −21 days

Outside the Treaty 9 area −12 days

Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year +6 days

Public comments received (count published with the decision) +5 days

Size of the application (18 mining claims) −4 days

Applications waiting at the same ministry office −3 days

The applicant’s earlier permits −1 day

Some factors about how the ministry handles the file are used but not shown here.

Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.

How the forecast has moved

Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker.

20272028202920302031203220332034

14 AugFirst forecast21 AugForecast moved4 SepForecast moved18 SepForecast moved2 OctForecast moved16 OctForecast moved23 OctForecast moved30 OctLatest; forecast moved

Showing 8 of 12 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble. At most 8 are shown; when there are more, the weeks with the biggest moves are kept.

Questions already settled

Not as we said
On 24 July 2026 we gave a 54% chance that it would be decided by 23 October 2026. It wasn’t.

Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
Not as we said
On 31 July 2026 we gave a 56% chance that it would be decided by 30 October 2026. It wasn’t.

Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.

The application so far

28 May 202630 Oct 2026

Open for public comment Under review

28 May 2026 Application submitted to the ministry
20 days later
17 Jun 2026 Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
17 Jul 2026 Public comment closed
3 months later
30 Oct 2026 Forecast made; still waiting

Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.

Where it is

1 km

Where in Ontario

The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 849 hectares in all.

What the application asks for

Activities: Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mining claims covered: 18
Area of those claims: 849 hectares

Surroundings

Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year: none held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; none put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres: 7
Workload at the ministry office handling it: 114 applications waiting; it decided 43 in the past six months
Applicant: A major mining producer
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits: None before this one