Withdrawn on 3 Sep 2026the day the withdrawal was posted to the registry
84 daysfrom when it was posted on 11 Jun 2026 to the withdrawal
How our forecast did
Our last forecast before the withdrawal, made on 28 August 2026, put an 8 in 10 chance on a decision or a withdrawal between 14 Sep 2026 and the furthest date the model looks ahead, with a middle date of 20 Apr 2027. It was withdrawn on 3 September 2026, outside that range, before it began: 229 days earlier than the middle date.
Withdrawn 3 Sep 2026
28 Aug 2026Oct 2026Aug 2027Aug 2028Aug 2030
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% range
The curve is the forecast made 28 August 2026; the dark line is the real date. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days. We forecast when an application stops waiting, so a withdrawal ends the wait the same way a decision does.
0 of 3 weekly forecasts of this application had the real date inside their 80% range.
The other questions that forecast answered
Not as we said
On 28 August 2026 we gave a 67% chance that it would not be decided or withdrawn by 27 November 2026. It was withdrawn before then.
Not as we said
On 28 August 2026 we gave a 55% chance that it would not be decided or withdrawn by 26 February 2027. It was withdrawn before then.
Not as we said
On 28 August 2026 we gave a 54% chance that it would be put on hold first. It was withdrawn without a hold.
Not as we said
On 28 August 2026 we gave a 76% chance that it would be issued, and 4% that it would be refused or withdrawn. It was withdrawn.
How the forecast moved
Forecasts for this application side by side, up to the last one before the withdrawal. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier the end of the wait then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the last is shaded darker. The dashed line across is the real date, 3 September 2026.
2027202820292030203120322033
14 AugFirst forecast28 AugLast forecast
Withdrawn 3 Sep 2026, the real date
Showing 2 of 3 Friday forecasts made before the withdrawal: the first, the last, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
What pushed it earlier or later
In the last forecast before the withdrawal, the named factors that moved the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms)−63 days
The plan includes drilling+32 days
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year−25 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months−19 days
Applied in 2023 or later+19 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area−9 days
Size of the application (66 mining claims)−9 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision)+4 days
Applications waiting at the same ministry office−1 day
The applicant’s earlier permits−1 day
Some factors about how the ministry handles the file are used but not shown here.
Not counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
The application so far
11 Jun 20263 Sep 2026
Open for public commentUnder review
11 Jun 2026Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
11 Jul 2026Public comment closed
8 weeks later
3 Sep 2026Decided: withdrawn
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
2 km
Where in Ontario
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 1,120 hectares in all.
What the application asks for
Activities
Line cutting (wider than 1.5 metres)
Mechanized stripping (over 100 square metres within a 200 metre radius)
Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mining claims covered
66
Area of those claims
1,120 hectares
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
5 applications held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; 4 applications put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
6
Workload at the ministry office handling it
108 applications waiting; it decided 46 in the past six months
Applicant
A junior exploration company
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
None before this one
Published Mondays, noon Toronto timeKestrel EconomicsBULLETIN