Kestrel Economics · Bulletin Beta

This week / Ontario exploration permit

026-0607

A mid-sized mining company proposes mechanized drilling on 68 mining claims covering 2,266 hectares in St. Germain Township, Algoma District, about 40 kilometres northwest of Michipicoten River and about 41 kilometres west of Wawa.

Waiting on a decisionstatus
143 dayswaiting since it was posted on 9 Jun 2026

When it is likely to be decided

The model puts an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 4 Nov 2026 and 24 Feb 2028 (our 80% credible interval, shortened elsewhere to the 80% range).

30 Oct 2026Nov 2026Dec 2026Apr 2027Oct 2027
Middle half of the chances (50%) 80% range

Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.

How it ends

Issued
92%
Refused or withdrawn
6%
Still undecided at the furthest date we look ahead
3%

Key dates

  • A 1 in 10 chance it is decided by4 Nov 2026
  • Even odds it is decided by19 Jan 2027
  • A 9 in 10 chance it is decided by24 Feb 2028
  • Chance it is decided within 3 months, by 29 Jan 202753%
  • Chance it is decided within 6 months, by 30 Apr 202774%
  • Chance it is put on hold before a decision19%

What pushes it earlier or later

The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.

EarlierLater
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms) −33 days
The plan includes drilling +21 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months +15 days
Applied in 2023 or later +10 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area −6 days
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year −5 days
Size of the application (68 mining claims) −3 days
Applications waiting at the same ministry office −3 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision) +2 days
The applicant’s earlier permits −1 day

Some factors about how the ministry handles the file are used but not shown here.

Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.

How the forecast has moved

Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker.

Oct 2026Jan 2027Apr 2027Jul 2027Oct 2027Jan 2028
14 AugFirst forecast28 AugForecast moved11 SepForecast moved25 SepForecast moved9 OctForecast moved23 OctForecast moved30 OctLatest

Showing 7 of 12 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.

Questions already settled

  • Not as we said

    On 24 July 2026 we gave a 85% chance that it would be decided by 23 October 2026. It wasn’t.

    Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.

  • Not as we said

    On 31 July 2026 we gave a 82% chance that it would be decided by 30 October 2026. It wasn’t.

    Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.

The application so far

29 May 202630 Oct 2026
Open for public comment Under review
  1. 29 May 2026 Application submitted to the ministry
  2. 11 days later
  3. 9 Jun 2026 Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
  4. 4 weeks later
  5. 9 Jul 2026 Public comment closed
  6. 4 months later
  7. 30 Oct 2026 Forecast made; still waiting

Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.

Where it is

2 km
Where in Ontario

The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 2,266 hectares in all.

What the application asks for

Activities
  • Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mining claims covered
68
Area of those claims
2,266 hectares

Surroundings

Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
2 applications held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; none put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
None
Workload at the ministry office handling it
5 applications waiting; it decided 17 in the past six months
Applicant
A mid-sized mining company
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
1
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