Our last forecast before the decision, made on 23 October 2026, put an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 31 Oct 2026 and 1 Dec 2030, with a middle date of 15 Feb 2027. It was issued on 29 October 2026, outside that range, before it began: 109 days earlier than the middle date.
Issued 29 Oct 2026
23 Oct 2026Dec 2026Oct 2027Oct 2028Oct 2030
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% range
The curve is the forecast made 23 October 2026; the dark line is the real date. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
10 of 11 weekly forecasts of this application had the real date inside their 80% range.
The other questions that forecast answered
Not as we said
On 23 October 2026 we gave a 57% chance that it would not be decided by 22 January 2027. It was issued before then.
As we said
On 23 October 2026 we gave a 64% chance that it would be decided by 23 April 2027. It was issued before then.
As we said
On 23 October 2026 we gave a 71% chance that it would not be put on hold first. It was issued without a hold.
As we said
On 23 October 2026 we gave a 83% chance that it would be issued. It was issued.
How the forecast moved
Forecasts for this application side by side, up to the last one before the decision. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the last is shaded darker. The dashed line across is the real date, 29 October 2026. A percentage at the top of a column is the chance of still waiting at the furthest date that forecast looked ahead; each shape below it is drawn to its own width, so it shows when a decision is likeliest if one comes.
Showing 8 of 11 Friday forecasts made before the decision: the first, the last, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble. At most 8 are shown; when there are more, the weeks with the biggest moves are kept.
What pushed it earlier or later
In the last forecast before the decision, the named factors that moved the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms)−37 days
The plan includes drilling+23 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months+16 days
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year−15 days
Applied in 2023 or later+11 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area−6 days
The applicant’s earlier permits−5 days
Size of the application (72 mining claims)−4 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision)+2 days
Applications waiting at the same ministry office−2 days
Some factors about how the ministry handles the file are used but not shown here.
Not counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
The application so far
20 May 202629 Oct 2026
Open for public commentUnder review
20 May 2026Application submitted to the ministry
9 days later
29 May 2026Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
28 Jun 2026Public comment closed
4 months later
29 Oct 2026Decided: approved
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
1 km
Where in Ontario
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 714 hectares in all.
What the application asks for
Activities
Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mining claims covered
72
Area of those claims
714 hectares
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
7 applications held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; none put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
8
Workload at the ministry office handling it
8 applications waiting; it decided 18 in the past six months
Applicant
A major mining producer
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
9
Published Mondays, noon Toronto timeKestrel EconomicsBULLETIN