This week / Ontario exploration permit
A mid-sized mining company proposes mechanized drilling on 485 mining claims covering 9,370 hectares in Kenora District.
The model puts an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 13 Feb 2027 and the furthest date it looks ahead (our 80% credible interval, shortened elsewhere to the 80% range).
Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
Some factors about how the ministry handles the file are used but not shown here.
Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker. A percentage at the top of a column is the chance of still waiting at the furthest date that forecast looked ahead; each shape below it is drawn to its own width, so it shows when a decision is likeliest if one comes.
Showing 7 of 12 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
On 24 July 2026 we gave a 64% chance that it would not be decided by 23 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
On 31 July 2026 we gave a 67% chance that it would not be decided by 30 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 9,370 hectares in all.