Issued on 16 Aug 2026the day the decision was posted to the registry
124 daysfrom when it was posted on 14 Apr 2026 to the decision
How our forecast did
Our last forecast before the decision, made on 14 August 2026, put an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 18 Aug 2026 and 11 Dec 2026, with a middle date of 16 Sep 2026. It was issued on 16 August 2026, outside that range, before it began: 31 days earlier than the middle date.
Issued 16 Aug 2026
14 Aug 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% range
The curve is the forecast made 14 August 2026; the dark line is the real date. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
0 of 1 weekly forecast of this application had the real date inside its 80% range.
The other questions that forecast answered
As we said
On 14 August 2026 we gave a 84% chance that it would be decided by 13 November 2026. It was issued before then.
As we said
On 14 August 2026 we gave a 94% chance that it would be decided by 12 February 2027. It was issued before then.
As we said
On 14 August 2026 we gave a 96% chance that it would be issued. It was issued.
How the forecast moved
Forecasts for this application side by side, up to the last one before the decision. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the last is shaded darker. The dashed line across is the real date, 16 August 2026.
Sep 2026Oct 2026Nov 2026Dec 2026
14 AugFirst forecast
Issued 16 Aug 2026, the real date
Showing all 1 Friday forecast made before the decision.
What pushed it earlier or later
In the last forecast before the decision, the named factors that moved the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
Applied in 2023 or later−18 days
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms)−10 days
The plan includes drilling+7 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months+5 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area−2 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision)+1 day
Applications waiting at the same ministry office−1 day
The applicant’s earlier permits−1 day
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year+1 day
Not counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
The application so far
25 Mar 202616 Aug 2026
Open for public commentUnder reviewOn hold
25 Mar 2026Application submitted to the ministry
20 days later
14 Apr 2026Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
14 May 2026Public comment closed
19 days later
2 Jun 2026Put on hold to consult an Indigenous nation
2 months later
16 Aug 2026Decided: approved
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
2 km
Where in Ontario
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 601 hectares in all.
What the application asks for
Activities
Line cutting (wider than 1.5 metres)
Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mining claims covered
27
Area of those claims
601 hectares
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
none held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; none put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
2
Workload at the ministry office handling it
9 applications waiting; it decided 16 in the past six months
Applicant
A junior exploration company
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
1
Published Mondays, noon Toronto timeKestrel EconomicsBULLETIN