This week / Ontario exploration permit

026-0153

A mid-sized mining company proposes mechanized drilling on 51 mining claims covering 771 hectares in McDonough Township and Dome Township, Kenora District, about 11 kilometres west of Red Lake.

Waiting on a decisionstatus

259 dayswaiting since it was posted on 13 Feb 2026

When it is likely to be decided

The model puts an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 31 Dec 2026 and the furthest date it looks ahead (our 80% credible interval, shortened elsewhere to the 80% range).

30 Oct 2026Dec 2026Oct 2027Oct 2028Oct 2030

Middle half of the chances (50%) 80% range

Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.

How it ends

Issued: 55%
Refused or withdrawn: 8%
Still undecided at the furthest date we look ahead: 37%

Key dates

A 1 in 10 chance it is decided by31 Dec 2026
Even odds it is decided by6 Jun 2029
A under 1% chance it is still waiting on23 Mar 2032
Chance it is decided within 3 months, by 29 Jan 202714%
Chance it is decided within 6 months, by 30 Apr 202723%
Chance it is put on hold before a decision75%

What pushes it earlier or later

The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.

EarlierLater

Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms) −75 days

The plan includes drilling +69 days

Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year −40 days

Applied in 2023 or later +33 days

How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months −27 days

Outside the Treaty 9 area −15 days

Size of the application (51 mining claims) −13 days

Public comments received (count published with the decision) +6 days

The applicant’s earlier permits −1 day

Applications waiting at the same ministry office −1 day

Some factors about how the ministry handles the file are used but not shown here.

Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.

How the forecast has moved

Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker.

2027202820292030203120322033

14 AugFirst forecast9 OctForecast moved30 OctLatest

Showing 3 of 12 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.

Questions already settled

As we said
On 24 July 2026 we gave a 88% chance that it would not be decided by 23 October 2026. It wasn’t.

Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
As we said
On 31 July 2026 we gave a 89% chance that it would not be decided by 30 October 2026. It wasn’t.

Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.

The application so far

27 Jan 202630 Oct 2026

Open for public comment Under review

27 Jan 2026 Application submitted to the ministry
17 days later
13 Feb 2026 Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
15 Mar 2026 Public comment closed
8 months later
30 Oct 2026 Forecast made; still waiting

Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.

Where it is

1 km

Where in Ontario

The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 771 hectares in all.

What the application asks for

Activities: Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mining claims covered: 51
Area of those claims: 771 hectares

Surroundings

Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year: 4 applications held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; 5 applications put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres: 6
Workload at the ministry office handling it: 95 applications waiting; it decided 44 in the past six months
Applicant: A mid-sized mining company
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits: None before this one