A mid-sized mining company proposes mechanized drilling and line cutting on 106 mining claims covering 1,789 hectares in Willans Township and Ranger Township, Kenora District, about 15 kilometres southeast of Red Lake.
On holdwaiting on consultation with an Indigenous nation
287 dayswaiting since it was posted on 16 Jan 2026
When it is likely to be decided
The model puts an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 18 Nov 2026 and the furthest date it looks ahead (our 80% credible interval, shortened elsewhere to the 80% range).
12%
30 Oct 2026Nov 2026Dec 2026Apr 2027Oct 202722 Mar 2028
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% rangeStill waiting at the furthest date (bar height = its share)
12% chance still undecided on 22 March 2028, the furthest date the model looks ahead
The model looks ahead 17 months from the forecast date, to 22 March 2028. It does not try to say
when an application still waiting after that will be decided, so every such case is counted together at that date.
The bar on the right is that share: the chance this application is still waiting then. It is not a date we expect a decision on.
The curve to its left shares out the rest, 88%, over the dates before it.
Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
How it ends
Issued
78%
Refused or withdrawn
10%
Still undecided at the furthest date we look ahead
12%
Key dates
A 1 in 10 chance it is decided by18 Nov 2026
Even odds it is decided by22 Feb 2027
A 12% chance it is still waiting on22 Mar 2028
Chance it is decided within 3 months, by 29 Jan 202743%
Chance it is decided within 6 months, by 30 Apr 202761%
Already on hold (waiting on consultation with an Indigenous nation) since 23 Mar 2026; the ministry restated the hold on 22 Oct 2026On hold
What pushes it earlier or later
The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
Applied in 2023 or later−32 days
The plan includes drilling+18 days
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms)−16 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months−14 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area−4 days
Applications waiting at the same ministry office+3 days
The applicant’s earlier permits−2 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision)+1 day
Size of the application (106 mining claims)−1 day
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year−1 day
Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
How the forecast has moved
Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker. A percentage at the top of a column is the chance of still waiting at the furthest date that forecast looked ahead; each shape below it is drawn to its own width, so it shows when a decision is likeliest if one comes.
Showing 8 of 12 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble. At most 8 are shown; when there are more, the weeks with the biggest moves are kept.
Questions already settled
As we said
On 24 July 2026 we gave a 61% chance that it would not be decided by 23 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
As we said
On 31 July 2026 we gave a 61% chance that it would not be decided by 30 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
The application so far
28 Nov 202530 Oct 2026
Open for public commentUnder reviewOn hold
28 Nov 2025Application submitted to the ministry
7 weeks later
16 Jan 2026Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
15 Feb 2026Public comment closed
5 weeks later
23 Mar 2026Put on hold to consult an Indigenous nation
7 months later
22 Oct 2026The ministry restated the hold
8 days later
30 Oct 2026Forecast made; still waiting
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
2 km
Where in Ontario
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 1,789 hectares in all.
What the application asks for
Activities
Line cutting (wider than 1.5 metres)
Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mining claims covered
106
Area of those claims
1,789 hectares
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
1 application held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; 1 application put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
5
Workload at the ministry office handling it
96 applications waiting; it decided 75 in the past six months
Applicant
A mid-sized mining company
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
1
Published Mondays, noon Toronto timeKestrel EconomicsBULLETIN