A junior exploration company proposes mechanized drilling, mechanized stripping, and pitting and trenching of bedrock in Kenora District, about 26 kilometres northwest of North Spirit Lake and about 51 kilometres south of Sandy Lake.
On holdwaiting on consultation with an Indigenous nation
303 dayswaiting since it was posted on 31 Dec 2025
When it is likely to be decided
The model puts an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 11 Nov 2026 and 21 Nov 2027 (our 80% credible interval, shortened elsewhere to the 80% range).
4%
30 Oct 2026Nov 2026Jan 2027Oct 202710 Aug 2028
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% rangeStill waiting at the furthest date (bar height = its share)
4% chance still undecided on 10 August 2028, the furthest date the model looks ahead
The model looks ahead 21 months from the forecast date, to 10 August 2028. It does not try to say
when an application still waiting after that will be decided, so every such case is counted together at that date.
The bar on the right is that share: the chance this application is still waiting then. It is not a date we expect a decision on.
The curve to its left shares out the rest, 96%, over the dates before it.
Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
How it ends
Issued
87%
Refused or withdrawn
9%
Still undecided at the furthest date we look ahead
4%
Key dates
A 1 in 10 chance it is decided by11 Nov 2026
Even odds it is decided by14 Jan 2027
A 9 in 10 chance it is decided by21 Nov 2027
Chance it is decided within 3 months, by 29 Jan 202755%
Chance it is decided within 6 months, by 30 Apr 202775%
Already on hold (waiting on consultation with an Indigenous nation) since 11 Aug 2026On hold
What pushes it earlier or later
The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
Applied in 2023 or later−37 days
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms)−20 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months−17 days
The plan includes drilling+16 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area−4 days
Applications waiting at the same ministry office+2 days
Size of the application+2 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision)+2 days
The applicant’s earlier permits−1 day
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year+1 day
Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
How the forecast has moved
Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker. A percentage at the top of a column is the chance of still waiting at the furthest date that forecast looked ahead; each shape below it is drawn to its own width, so it shows when a decision is likeliest if one comes.
Showing 7 of 12 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
Questions already settled
As we said
On 24 July 2026 we gave a 82% chance that it would not be decided by 23 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
As we said
On 31 July 2026 we gave a 86% chance that it would not be decided by 30 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
The application so far
31 Dec 202530 Oct 2026
Open for public commentUnder reviewOn hold
31 Dec 2025Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
30 Jan 2026Public comment closed
6 months later
11 Aug 2026Put on hold to consult an Indigenous nation
3 months later
30 Oct 2026Forecast made; still waiting
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
We do not have outlines for the mining claims the application covers, so the map cannot show where it is.
What the application asks for
Activities
Mechanized stripping (over 100 square metres within a 200 metre radius)
Pitting and trenching of bedrock (over 3 cubic metres within a 200 metre radius)
Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
none held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; 1 application put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
1
Workload at the ministry office handling it
94 applications waiting; it decided 79 in the past six months
Applicant
A junior exploration company
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
1
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