A mid-sized mining company proposes mechanized drilling on 48 mining claims covering 1,024 hectares in Cochrane District, about 56 kilometres north of Virginiatown and about 63 kilometres northeast of Kirkland Lake.
Waiting on a decisionstatus
322 dayswaiting since it was posted on 12 Dec 2025
The model puts an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 5 Dec 2026 and the furthest date it looks ahead (our 80% credible interval, shortened elsewhere to the 80% range).
6%
30 Oct 2026Dec 2026Oct 2027Oct 2028Oct 203020 Jan 2032
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% rangeStill waiting at the furthest date (bar height = its share)
6% chance still undecided on 20 January 2032, the furthest date the model looks ahead
The model looks ahead 5.2 years from the forecast date, to 20 January 2032. It does not try to say
when an application still waiting after that will be decided, so every such case is counted together at that date.
The bar on the right is that share: the chance this application is still waiting then. It is not a date we expect a decision on.
The curve to its left shares out the rest, 95%, over the dates before it.
Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
How it ends
Issued
56%
Refused or withdrawn
12%
Still undecided at the furthest date we look ahead
32%
Key dates
A 1 in 10 chance it is decided by5 Dec 2026
Even odds it is decided by17 Dec 2028
A 6% chance it is still waiting on20 Jan 2032
Chance it is decided within 3 months, by 29 Jan 202720%
Chance it is decided within 6 months, by 30 Apr 202725%
Chance it is put on hold before a decision48%
What pushes it earlier or later
The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
The plan includes drilling+71 days
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms)−62 days
Applied in 2023 or later+27 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months+22 days
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year−20 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area−14 days
Size of the application (48 mining claims)−7 days
The applicant’s earlier permits−7 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision)+6 days
Applications waiting at the same ministry office−5 days
Some factors about how the ministry handles the file are used but not shown here.
Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
How the forecast has moved
Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker. A percentage at the top of a column is the chance of still waiting at the furthest date that forecast looked ahead; each shape below it is drawn to its own width, so it shows when a decision is likeliest if one comes.
Showing 5 of 12 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
Questions already settled
As we said
On 24 July 2026 we gave a 63% chance that it would not be decided by 23 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
As we said
On 31 July 2026 we gave a 66% chance that it would not be decided by 30 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
The application so far
12 Dec 202530 Oct 2026
Open for public commentUnder review
12 Dec 2025Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
11 Jan 2026Public comment closed
10 months later
30 Oct 2026Forecast made; still waiting
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
2 km
Where in Ontario
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 1,024 hectares in all.
What the application asks for
Activities
Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mining claims covered
48
Area of those claims
1,024 hectares
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
3 applications held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; none put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
4
Workload at the ministry office handling it
4 applications waiting; it decided 23 in the past six months
Applicant
A mid-sized mining company
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
4
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