A mid-sized mining company proposes mechanized drilling and mechanized stripping on 8 mining claims covering 168 hectares in Thunder Bay District, about 21 kilometres east of East McKirdy and about 46 kilometres northeast of Nipigon.
On holdheld at the applicant’s request
638 dayswaiting since it was posted on 30 Jan 2025
66% chancestill waiting on 20 Dec 2030
When it is likely to be decided
More likely than not, this application will still be waiting on 20 December 2030, the furthest date the model looks ahead.
If it is decided before then, the curve shows when.
66%
30 Oct 2026Dec 2026Oct 2027Oct 202820 Dec 2030
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% rangeStill waiting at the furthest date (bar height = its share)
66% chance still undecided on 20 December 2030, the furthest date the model looks ahead
The model looks ahead 4.1 years from the forecast date, to 20 December 2030. It does not try to say
when an application still waiting after that will be decided, so every such case is counted together at that date.
The bar on the right is that share: the chance this application is still waiting then. It is not a date we expect a decision on.
The curve to its left shares out the rest, 34%, over the dates before it.
Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
How it ends
Issued
25%
Refused or withdrawn
9%
Still undecided at the furthest date we look ahead
66%
Key dates
A 1 in 10 chance it is decided by10 Sep 2027
A 66% chance it is still waiting on20 Dec 2030
Chance it is decided within 3 months, by 29 Jan 20273%
Chance it is decided within 6 months, by 30 Apr 20276%
Already on hold (held at the applicant’s request) since 21 Mar 2025; the ministry restated the hold on 22 Oct 2026On hold
What pushes it earlier or later
The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
Applied in 2023 or later+49 days
The plan includes drilling+47 days
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms)−17 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months−13 days
Applications waiting at the same ministry office+10 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area−7 days
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year−6 days
The applicant’s earlier permits+3 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision)+3 days
Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
How the forecast has moved
Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker. A percentage at the top of a column is the chance of still waiting at the furthest date that forecast looked ahead; each shape below it is drawn to its own width, so it shows when a decision is likeliest if one comes.
202720282029203065%69%66%
14 AugFirst forecast23 OctThe ministry restated the hold30 OctLatest
Showing 3 of 12 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
Questions already settled
As we said
On 24 July 2026 we gave a 93% chance that it would not be decided by 23 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
As we said
On 31 July 2026 we gave a 91% chance that it would not be decided by 30 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
The application so far
30 Jan 202530 Oct 2026
Open for public commentUnder reviewOn hold
30 Jan 2025Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
1 Mar 2025Public comment closed
20 days later
21 Mar 2025Put on hold at the applicant’s request
19 months later
22 Oct 2026The ministry restated the hold
8 days later
30 Oct 2026Forecast made; still waiting
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
1 km
Where in Ontario
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 168 hectares in all.
What the application asks for
Activities
Mechanized stripping (over 100 square metres within a 200 metre radius)
Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mining claims covered
8
Area of those claims
168 hectares
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
4 applications held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; 2 applications put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
8
Workload at the ministry office handling it
117 applications waiting; it decided 53 in the past six months
Applicant
A mid-sized mining company
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
None before this one
Published Mondays, noon Toronto timeKestrel EconomicsBULLETIN