This week / Ontario exploration permit

019-9013

An individual proposes mechanized drilling, mechanized stripping, and pitting and trenching of bedrock on 16 mining claims covering 341 hectares in McTavish Township, Thunder Bay District, about 21 kilometres southwest of Hurkett and about 40 kilometres southwest of Red Rock.

Waiting on a decisionstatus

821 dayswaiting since it was posted on 31 Jul 2024

When it is likely to be decided

The model puts an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 5 Mar 2027 and the furthest date it looks ahead (our 80% credible interval, shortened elsewhere to the 80% range).

30 Oct 2026Dec 2026Oct 2027Oct 2028Oct 2030

Middle half of the chances (50%) 80% range

Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.

How it ends

Issued: 46%
Refused or withdrawn: 14%
Still undecided at the furthest date we look ahead: 40%

Key dates

A 1 in 10 chance it is decided by5 Mar 2027
Even odds it is decided by2 Jun 2030
A under 1% chance it is still waiting on8 Sep 2030
Chance it is decided within 3 months, by 29 Jan 20278%
Chance it is decided within 6 months, by 30 Apr 202714%
Chance it is put on hold before a decision89%

What pushes it earlier or later

The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.

EarlierLater

The plan includes drilling +48 days

Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms) −25 days

How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months −21 days

Applied in 2023 or later +13 days

Outside the Treaty 9 area −8 days

Applications waiting at the same ministry office +8 days

Public comments received (count published with the decision) +3 days

The applicant’s earlier permits +2 days

Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year +2 days

Size of the application (16 mining claims) −1 day

Some factors about how the ministry handles the file are used but not shown here.

Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.

How the forecast has moved

Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker.

2027202820292030203120322033

14 AugFirst forecast18 SepApplication submitted to the ministry16 OctForecast moved30 OctLatest

Showing 4 of 12 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.

Questions already settled

As we said
On 24 July 2026 we gave a 95% chance that it would not be decided by 23 October 2026. It wasn’t.

Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
As we said
On 31 July 2026 we gave a 94% chance that it would not be decided by 30 October 2026. It wasn’t.

Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.

The application so far

3 Jul 202430 Oct 2026

Open for public comment Under review

3 Jul 2024 Application submitted to the ministry
4 weeks later
31 Jul 2024 Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
30 Aug 2024 Public comment closed
2.2 years later
30 Oct 2026 Forecast made; still waiting

Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.

Where it is

0.5 km

Where in Ontario

The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 341 hectares in all.

What the application asks for

Activities: Mechanized stripping (over 100 square metres within a 200 metre radius)
Pitting and trenching of bedrock (over 3 cubic metres within a 200 metre radius)
Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mining claims covered: 16
Area of those claims: 341 hectares

Surroundings

Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year: none held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; none put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres: 2
Workload at the ministry office handling it: 111 applications waiting; it decided 59 in the past six months
Applicant: An individual
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits: None before this one