A mid-sized mining company proposes mechanized drilling and mechanized stripping on 133 mining claims covering 6,505 hectares in Thunder Bay District, about 52 kilometres southwest of White River.
On holdwaiting on consultation with an Indigenous nation
925 dayswaiting since it was posted on 18 Apr 2024
When it is likely to be decided
The model puts an 8 in 10 chance on a decision between 21 Nov 2026 and the furthest date it looks ahead (our 80% credible interval, shortened elsewhere to the 80% range).
18%
30 Oct 2026Nov 2026Dec 2026Apr 2027Oct 20272 Mar 2028
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% rangeStill waiting at the furthest date (bar height = its share)
18% chance still undecided on 2 March 2028, the furthest date the model looks ahead
The model looks ahead 16 months from the forecast date, to 2 March 2028. It does not try to say
when an application still waiting after that will be decided, so every such case is counted together at that date.
The bar on the right is that share: the chance this application is still waiting then. It is not a date we expect a decision on.
The curve to its left shares out the rest, 82%, over the dates before it.
Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
How it ends
Issued
54%
Refused or withdrawn
28%
Still undecided at the furthest date we look ahead
18%
Key dates
A 1 in 10 chance it is decided by21 Nov 2026
Even odds it is decided by8 Apr 2027
A 18% chance it is still waiting on2 Mar 2028
Chance it is decided within 3 months, by 29 Jan 202735%
Chance it is decided within 6 months, by 30 Apr 202754%
Already on hold (waiting on consultation with an Indigenous nation) since 3 Mar 2026On hold
What pushes it earlier or later
The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
Applied in 2023 or later−28 days
The plan includes drilling+20 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months+13 days
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms)−5 days
Applications waiting at the same ministry office−5 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area−3 days
Size of the application (133 mining claims)+2 days
The applicant’s earlier permits+2 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision)+1 day
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year−1 day
Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
How the forecast has moved
Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker. A percentage at the top of a column is the chance of still waiting at the furthest date that forecast looked ahead; each shape below it is drawn to its own width, so it shows when a decision is likeliest if one comes.
Oct 2026Jan 2027Apr 2027Jul 2027Oct 2027Jan 202813%14%15%16%16%18%18%
Showing 7 of 12 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
Questions already settled
As we said
On 24 July 2026 we gave a 66% chance that it would not be decided by 23 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
As we said
On 31 July 2026 we gave a 64% chance that it would not be decided by 30 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
The application so far
18 Apr 202430 Oct 2026
Open for public commentUnder reviewOn hold
18 Apr 2024Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
18 May 2024Public comment closed
21 months later
3 Mar 2026Put on hold to consult an Indigenous nation
8 months later
30 Oct 2026Forecast made; still waiting
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
5 km
Where in Ontario
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 6,505 hectares in all.
What the application asks for
Activities
Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mechanized stripping (over 100 square metres within a 200 metre radius)
Mining claims covered
133
Area of those claims
6,505 hectares
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
none held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; none put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
None
Workload at the ministry office handling it
6 applications waiting; it decided 10 in the past six months
Applicant
A mid-sized mining company
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
None before this one
Published Mondays, noon Toronto timeKestrel EconomicsBULLETIN