An individual proposes mechanized drilling on 86 mining claims covering 1,787 hectares in Havoc Lake Area, Thunder Bay District, about 37 kilometres south of Armstrong.
On holdwaiting on consultation with an Indigenous nation
1,191 dayswaiting since it was posted on 27 Jul 2023
More likely than not, this application will still be waiting on 16 April 2027, the furthest date the model looks ahead.
If it is decided before then, the curve shows when.
69%
30 Oct 2026Nov 2026Dec 202616 Apr 2027
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% rangeStill waiting at the furthest date (bar height = its share)
69% chance still undecided on 16 April 2027, the furthest date the model looks ahead
The model looks ahead 6 months from the forecast date, to 16 April 2027. It does not try to say
when an application still waiting after that will be decided, so every such case is counted together at that date.
The bar on the right is that share: the chance this application is still waiting then. It is not a date we expect a decision on.
The curve to its left shares out the rest, 31%, over the dates before it.
Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
How it ends
Issued
26%
Refused or withdrawn
5%
Still undecided at the furthest date we look ahead
69%
Key dates
A 1 in 10 chance it is decided by17 Dec 2026
A 69% chance it is still waiting on16 Apr 2027
Chance it is decided within 3 months, by 29 Jan 202718%
Chance it is decided within 6 months, by 30 Apr 202731%
Already on hold (waiting on consultation with an Indigenous nation) since 16 Apr 2025On hold
What pushes it earlier or later
The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
The plan includes drilling+4 days
Applied in 2023 or later−3 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months−1 day
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms)−1 day
Applications waiting at the same ministry office+1 day
The applicant’s earlier permits−1 day
Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
How the forecast has moved
Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker. A percentage at the top of a column is the chance of still waiting at the furthest date that forecast looked ahead; each shape below it is drawn to its own width, so it shows when a decision is likeliest if one comes.
Showing 5 of 12 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
Questions already settled
As we said
On 24 July 2026 we gave a 60% chance that it would not be decided by 23 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
As we said
On 31 July 2026 we gave a 59% chance that it would not be decided by 30 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
The application so far
29 Jun 202330 Oct 2026
Open for public commentUnder reviewOn hold
29 Jun 2023Application submitted to the ministry
4 weeks later
27 Jul 2023Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
26 Aug 2023Public comment closed
20 months later
16 Apr 2025Put on hold to consult an Indigenous nation
18 months later
30 Oct 2026Forecast made; still waiting
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
2 km
Where in Ontario
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 1,787 hectares in all.
What the application asks for
Activities
Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mining claims covered
86
Area of those claims
1,787 hectares
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
none held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; none put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
None
Workload at the ministry office handling it
116 applications waiting; it decided 64 in the past six months
Applicant
An individual
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
2
Published Mondays, noon Toronto timeKestrel EconomicsBULLETIN