Issued on 11 Sep 2026the day the decision was posted to the registry
1,190 daysfrom when it was posted on 9 Jun 2023 to the decision
The permit itself is dated 10 September 2026. Our forecasts are graded against 11 September 2026, the day the decision was posted to the registry.
How our forecast did
Our last forecast before the decision, made on 28 August 2026, said it would more likely than not still be waiting on 28 October 2031, the furthest date the model looks ahead. It gave a 41% chance of a decision before then, and a 1 in 10 chance of one by 12 Jul 2027. It was issued on 11 September 2026, 14 days after that forecast: outside its 80% range, earlier than it began.
60%Issued 11 Sep 2026
28 Aug 2026Oct 2026Aug 2027Aug 2028Aug 203028 Oct 2031
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% rangeStill waiting at the furthest date (bar height = its share)
The curve is the forecast made 28 August 2026; the dark line is the real date. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
0 of 3 weekly forecasts of this application had the real date inside their 80% range.
The forecast of 4 September 2026 is not counted: its 80% range ran to the furthest date the model looks ahead, so it had no end to grade against.
The other questions that forecast answered
Not as we said
On 28 August 2026 we gave a 97% chance that it would not be decided by 27 November 2026. It was issued before then.
Not as we said
On 28 August 2026 we gave a 94% chance that it would not be decided by 26 February 2027. It was issued before then.
Not as we said
On 28 August 2026 we gave a 60% chance that it would be still undecided at the furthest date the model looks ahead, and 29% that it would be issued. It was issued.
How the forecast moved
Forecasts for this application side by side, up to the last one before the decision. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the last is shaded darker. The dashed line across is the real date, 11 September 2026. A percentage at the top of a column is the chance of still waiting at the furthest date that forecast looked ahead; each shape below it is drawn to its own width, so it shows when a decision is likeliest if one comes.
Showing 3 of 4 Friday forecasts made before the decision: the first, the last, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
What pushed it earlier or later
In the last forecast before the decision, the named factors that moved the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
Applied in 2023 or later+69 days
The plan includes drilling+68 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months−25 days
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms)−23 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area+18 days
Applications waiting at the same ministry office+13 days
The applicant’s earlier permits+5 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision)+4 days
Size of the application (36 mining claims)+1 day
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year+1 day
Not counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
The application so far
23 May 202311 Sep 2026
Open for public commentUnder reviewOn hold
23 May 2023Application submitted to the ministry
17 days later
9 Jun 2023Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
9 Jul 2023Public comment closed
2.6 years later
27 Jan 2026Put on hold: a temporary hold
7 months later
11 Sep 2026Decided: approved
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
1 km
Where in Ontario
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 707 hectares in all.
What the application asks for
Activities
Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mechanized stripping (over 100 square metres within a 200 metre radius)
Pitting and trenching of bedrock (over 3 cubic metres within a 200 metre radius)
Mining claims covered
36
Area of those claims
707 hectares
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
none held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; none put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
None
Workload at the ministry office handling it
92 applications waiting; it decided 65 in the past six months
Applicant
An individual
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
None before this one
Published Mondays, noon Toronto timeKestrel EconomicsBULLETIN