A junior exploration company proposes mechanized drilling, mechanized stripping, and pitting and trenching of bedrock on 1 mining claim covering 41 hectares in Metcalfe Lake Area, Thunder Bay District, about 57 kilometres northwest of Greenstone and about 67 kilometres west of Nakina.
On holda temporary hold
1,275 dayswaiting since it was posted on 4 May 2023
68% chancestill waiting on 15 Jan 2031
When it is likely to be decided
More likely than not, this application will still be waiting on 15 January 2031, the furthest date the model looks ahead.
If it is decided before then, the curve shows when.
68%
30 Oct 2026Dec 2026Oct 2027Oct 202815 Jan 2031
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% rangeStill waiting at the furthest date (bar height = its share)
68% chance still undecided on 15 January 2031, the furthest date the model looks ahead
The model looks ahead 4.2 years from the forecast date, to 15 January 2031. It does not try to say
when an application still waiting after that will be decided, so every such case is counted together at that date.
The bar on the right is that share: the chance this application is still waiting then. It is not a date we expect a decision on.
The curve to its left shares out the rest, 32%, over the dates before it.
Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
How it ends
Issued
18%
Refused or withdrawn
14%
Still undecided at the furthest date we look ahead
68%
Key dates
A 1 in 10 chance it is decided by25 Sep 2027
A 68% chance it is still waiting on15 Jan 2031
Chance it is decided within 3 months, by 29 Jan 20274%
Chance it is decided within 6 months, by 30 Apr 20276%
Already on hold (a temporary hold) since 16 Apr 2025On hold
What pushes it earlier or later
The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
The plan includes drilling+53 days
Applied in 2023 or later+41 days
Applications waiting at the same ministry office+15 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months−7 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area−6 days
The applicant’s earlier permits+6 days
Size of the application (1 mining claims)−5 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision)+2 days
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms)−2 days
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year−2 days
Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
How the forecast has moved
Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker. A percentage at the top of a column is the chance of still waiting at the furthest date that forecast looked ahead; each shape below it is drawn to its own width, so it shows when a decision is likeliest if one comes.
Showing 3 of 12 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
Questions already settled
As we said
On 24 July 2026 we gave a 91% chance that it would not be decided by 23 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
As we said
On 31 July 2026 we gave a 92% chance that it would not be decided by 30 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
The application so far
9 Mar 202330 Oct 2026
Open for public commentUnder reviewOn hold
9 Mar 2023Application submitted to the ministry
8 weeks later
4 May 2023Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
3 Jun 2023Public comment closed
22 months later
16 Apr 2025Put on hold: a temporary hold
18 months later
30 Oct 2026Forecast made; still waiting
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
0.5 km
Where in Ontario
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 41 hectares in all.
What the application asks for
Activities
Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mechanized stripping (over 100 square metres within a 200 metre radius)
Pitting and trenching of bedrock (over 3 cubic metres within a 200 metre radius)
Mining claims covered
1
Area of those claims
41 hectares
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
none held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; none put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
2
Workload at the ministry office handling it
105 applications waiting; it decided 51 in the past six months
Applicant
A junior exploration company
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
None before this one
Published Mondays, noon Toronto timeKestrel EconomicsBULLETIN