More likely than not, this application will still be waiting on 23 October 2031, the furthest date the model looks ahead.
If it is decided before then, the curve shows when.
67%
30 Oct 2026Dec 2026Oct 2027Oct 202823 Oct 2031
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% rangeStill waiting at the furthest date (bar height = its share)
67% chance still undecided on 23 October 2031, the furthest date the model looks ahead
The model looks ahead 5.0 years from the forecast date, to 23 October 2031. It does not try to say
when an application still waiting after that will be decided, so every such case is counted together at that date.
The bar on the right is that share: the chance this application is still waiting then. It is not a date we expect a decision on.
The curve to its left shares out the rest, 33%, over the dates before it.
Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
How it ends
Issued
24%
Refused or withdrawn
9%
Still undecided at the furthest date we look ahead
67%
Key dates
A 1 in 10 chance it is decided by14 Nov 2027
A 67% chance it is still waiting on23 Oct 2031
Chance it is decided within 3 months, by 29 Jan 20273%
Chance it is decided within 6 months, by 30 Apr 20275%
Already on hold (waiting on consultation with an Indigenous nation) since 22 Jan 2026On hold
What pushes it earlier or later
The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months−34 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area−8 days
Applications waiting at the same ministry office+7 days
Size of the application (447 mining claims)−6 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision)+3 days
The applicant’s earlier permits+2 days
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year+2 days
Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
How the forecast has moved
Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker. A percentage at the top of a column is the chance of still waiting at the furthest date that forecast looked ahead; each shape below it is drawn to its own width, so it shows when a decision is likeliest if one comes.
Showing 3 of 12 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
Questions already settled
As we said
On 24 July 2026 we gave a 93% chance that it would not be decided by 23 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
As we said
On 31 July 2026 we gave a 94% chance that it would not be decided by 30 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
The application so far
27 Sep 202230 Oct 2026
Open for public commentUnder reviewOn hold
27 Sep 2022Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
27 Oct 2022Public comment closed
3.2 years later
22 Jan 2026Put on hold to consult an Indigenous nation
Same day
22 Jan 2026Put on hold: a temporary hold
9 months later
30 Oct 2026Forecast made; still waiting
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
The registry's own map places this application about 22 kilometres from the mining claims it lists. We cannot tell which place is right, so we show no map.
What the application asks for
Activities
Mechanized stripping (over 100 square metres within a 200 metre radius)
Mining claims covered
447
Area of those claims
9,513 hectares
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
none held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; none put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
3
Workload at the ministry office handling it
99 applications waiting; it decided 82 in the past six months
Applicant
A junior exploration company
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
None before this one
Published Mondays, noon Toronto timeKestrel EconomicsBULLETIN