A mid-sized mining company proposes mechanized drilling, mechanized stripping and line cutting on 298 mining claims covering 5,612 hectares in Kenora District, about 61 kilometres north of Sachigo Lake.
On holda temporary hold
1,801 dayswaiting since it was posted on 24 Nov 2021
93% chancestill waiting on 11 Oct 2027
When it is likely to be decided
More likely than not, this application will still be waiting on 11 October 2027, the furthest date the model looks ahead.
If it is decided before then, the curve shows when.
93%
30 Oct 2026Nov 2026Dec 2026Apr 202711 Oct 2027
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% rangeStill waiting at the furthest date (bar height = its share)
93% chance still undecided on 11 October 2027, the furthest date the model looks ahead
The model looks ahead 11 months from the forecast date, to 11 October 2027. It does not try to say
when an application still waiting after that will be decided, so every such case is counted together at that date.
The bar on the right is that share: the chance this application is still waiting then. It is not a date we expect a decision on.
The curve to its left shares out the rest, 7%, over the dates before it.
Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
How it ends
Issued
5%
Refused or withdrawn
2%
Still undecided at the furthest date we look ahead
93%
Key dates
A 93% chance it is still waiting on11 Oct 2027
Chance it is decided within 3 months, by 29 Jan 20272%
Chance it is decided within 6 months, by 30 Apr 20274%
Already on hold (a temporary hold) since 10 Jan 2022On hold
What pushes it earlier or later
The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
The plan includes drilling+4 days
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms)−1 day
Applications waiting at the same ministry office+1 day
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months−1 day
Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
How the forecast has moved
Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker. A percentage at the top of a column is the chance of still waiting at the furthest date that forecast looked ahead; each shape below it is drawn to its own width, so it shows when a decision is likeliest if one comes.
Showing 3 of 12 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
Questions already settled
As we said
On 24 July 2026 we gave a 98% chance that it would not be decided by 23 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
As we said
On 31 July 2026 we gave a 97% chance that it would not be decided by 30 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
The application so far
3 Nov 202130 Oct 2026
Open for public commentUnder reviewOn hold
3 Nov 2021Application submitted to the ministry
3 weeks later
24 Nov 2021Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
24 Dec 2021Public comment closed
17 days later
10 Jan 2022Put on hold: a temporary hold
4.8 years later
30 Oct 2026Forecast made; still waiting
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
5 km
Where in Ontario
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 5,612 hectares in all.
What the application asks for
Activities
Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mechanized stripping (over 100 square metres within a 200 metre radius)
Line cutting (wider than 1.5 metres)
Mining claims covered
298
Area of those claims
5,612 hectares
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
none held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; none put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
None
Workload at the ministry office handling it
81 applications waiting; it decided 44 in the past six months
Applicant
A mid-sized mining company
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
None before this one
Published Mondays, noon Toronto timeKestrel EconomicsBULLETIN