A mid-sized mining company proposes mechanized drilling and mechanized stripping on 83 mining claims covering 1,773 hectares in Thunder Bay District, about 14 kilometres southwest of Hemlo and about 25 kilometres southeast of Marathon.
On holda temporary hold
2,263 dayswaiting since it was posted on 19 Aug 2020
More likely than not, this application will still be waiting on 20 October 2029, the furthest date the model looks ahead.
If it is decided before then, the curve shows when.
82%
30 Oct 2026Nov 2026Apr 2027Oct 2027Oct 202820 Oct 2029
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% rangeStill waiting at the furthest date (bar height = its share)
82% chance still undecided on 20 October 2029, the furthest date the model looks ahead
The model looks ahead 3.0 years from the forecast date, to 20 October 2029. It does not try to say
when an application still waiting after that will be decided, so every such case is counted together at that date.
The bar on the right is that share: the chance this application is still waiting then. It is not a date we expect a decision on.
The curve to its left shares out the rest, 18%, over the dates before it.
Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
How it ends
Issued
14%
Refused or withdrawn
4%
Still undecided at the furthest date we look ahead
82%
Key dates
A 1 in 10 chance it is decided by18 Mar 2028
A 82% chance it is still waiting on20 Oct 2029
Chance it is decided within 3 months, by 29 Jan 20272%
Chance it is decided within 6 months, by 30 Apr 20274%
Already on hold (a temporary hold) since 20 Jan 2024On hold
What pushes it earlier or later
The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
The plan includes drilling+19 days
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms)−4 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area−2 days
Applications waiting at the same ministry office+2 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months−2 days
The applicant’s earlier permits+2 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision)+1 day
Size of the application (83 mining claims)+1 day
Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
How the forecast has moved
Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker. A percentage at the top of a column is the chance of still waiting at the furthest date that forecast looked ahead; each shape below it is drawn to its own width, so it shows when a decision is likeliest if one comes.
Jan 2027Jul 2027Jan 2028Jul 2028Jan 2029Jul 202982%82%
14 AugFirst forecast30 OctLatest
Showing 2 of 12 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
Questions already settled
As we said
On 24 July 2026 we gave a 97% chance that it would not be decided by 23 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
As we said
On 31 July 2026 we gave a 96% chance that it would not be decided by 30 October 2026. It wasn’t.
Made before the calibration record began on 14 August 2026, so it is not counted in the record.
The application so far
5 Aug 202030 Oct 2026
Open for public commentUnder reviewOn hold
5 Aug 2020Application submitted to the ministry
14 days later
19 Aug 2020Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
18 Sep 2020Public comment closed
3.3 years later
20 Jan 2024Put on hold: a temporary hold
2.8 years later
30 Oct 2026Forecast made; still waiting
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
2 km
Where in Ontario
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 1,773 hectares in all.
What the application asks for
Activities
Mechanized drilling (drills over 150 kilograms)
Mechanized stripping (over 100 square metres within a 200 metre radius)
Mining claims covered
83
Area of those claims
1,773 hectares
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
none held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; none put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
None
Workload at the ministry office handling it
54 applications waiting; it decided 38 in the past six months
Applicant
A mid-sized mining company
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
None before this one
Published Mondays, noon Toronto timeKestrel EconomicsBULLETIN