When it is likely to be decided
More likely than not, this application will still be waiting on 17 October 2030, the furthest date the model looks ahead.
If it is decided before then, the curve shows when.
30 Oct 2026Dec 2026Oct 2027Oct 2028Oct 202917 Oct 2030
Middle half of the chances (50%) 80% range Still waiting at the furthest date (bar height = its share)
76% chance still undecided on 17 October 2030, the furthest date the model looks ahead
The model looks ahead 4.0 years from the forecast date, to 17 October 2030. It does not try to say
when an application still waiting after that will be decided, so every such case is counted together at that date.
The bar on the right is that share: the chance this application is still waiting then. It is not a date we expect a decision on.
The curve to its left shares out the rest, 24%, over the dates before it.
Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
What pushes it earlier or later
The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
The plan includes drilling +31 days
Heavy drilling planned (drills over 150 kilograms) −11 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area −5 days
Applications waiting at the same ministry office +3 days
The applicant’s earlier permits +2 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision) +2 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months +1 day
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year +1 day
Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
How the forecast has moved
Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker. A percentage at the top of a column is the chance of still waiting at the furthest date that forecast looked ahead; each shape below it is drawn to its own width, so it shows when a decision is likeliest if one comes.
14 AugFirst forecast30 OctLatest
Showing 2 of 12 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
The application so far
3 Jun 202030 Oct 2026
Open for public comment
Under review
On hold
- 3 Jun 2020 Application submitted to the ministry
- 9 weeks later
- 7 Aug 2020 Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
- 4 weeks later
- 6 Sep 2020 Public comment closed
- 4.4 years later
- 16 Jan 2025 Put on hold: a temporary hold
- 21 months later
- 30 Oct 2026 Forecast made; still waiting
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.