An individual proposes pitting and trenching of bedrock on 2 mining claims covering 42 hectares in Thunder Bay District, about 9.6 kilometres south of Longlac.
On holda temporary hold
2,457 dayswaiting since it was posted on 7 Feb 2020
62% chancestill waiting on 17 Oct 2030
When it is likely to be decided
More likely than not, this application will still be waiting on 17 October 2030, the furthest date the model looks ahead.
If it is decided before then, the curve shows when.
62%
30 Oct 2026Dec 2026Oct 2027Oct 2028Oct 202917 Oct 2030
Middle half of the chances (50%)80% rangeStill waiting at the furthest date (bar height = its share)
62% chance still undecided on 17 October 2030, the furthest date the model looks ahead
The model looks ahead 4.0 years from the forecast date, to 17 October 2030. It does not try to say
when an application still waiting after that will be decided, so every such case is counted together at that date.
The bar on the right is that share: the chance this application is still waiting then. It is not a date we expect a decision on.
The curve to its left shares out the rest, 38%, over the dates before it.
Forecast made 30 October 2026. Dates are spaced so that the next few weeks and the next few years both fit: the distance from the forecast date grows with the square root of the days.
How it ends
Issued
20%
Refused or withdrawn
19%
Still undecided at the furthest date we look ahead
62%
Key dates
A 1 in 10 chance it is decided by9 May 2027
A 62% chance it is still waiting on17 Oct 2030
Chance it is decided within 3 months, by 29 Jan 20275%
Chance it is decided within 6 months, by 30 Apr 20279%
Already on hold (a temporary hold) since 16 Jan 2025On hold
What pushes it earlier or later
The named factors that move the middle date most for this application, in days, compared with an application that is typical on that factor: + means later, − means earlier. They are the largest pieces, not the whole account.
EarlierLater
The applicant’s earlier permits+8 days
Outside the Treaty 9 area−6 days
How many decisions the ministry office made in the past six months−6 days
Size of the application (2 mining claims)−6 days
Holds placed on nearby applications in the past year−3 days
Public comments received (count published with the decision)+2 days
Applications waiting at the same ministry office+2 days
Not yet counted, because the model does not measure them yet: Indigenous nations affected; an impact and benefit agreement; an Indigenous-led assessment; a contested duty to consult; referral to the Minister.
How the forecast has moved
Forecasts for this application side by side. Across: the Friday each was made. Up: the date of the decision. The wider a shape at a date, the likelier a decision then; the dark mark is that week's middle date, and the newest is shaded darker. A percentage at the top of a column is the chance of still waiting at the furthest date that forecast looked ahead; each shape below it is drawn to its own width, so it shows when a decision is likeliest if one comes.
Showing 3 of 10 Friday forecasts: the first, the latest, and the weeks it changed, when something happened to the application or the forecast moved more than its usual weekly wobble.
Questions already settled
None of the questions we have asked about this application has been settled yet. The first to settle is whether it is decided by 29 Jan 2027.
The application so far
13 Jan 202030 Oct 2026
Open for public commentUnder reviewOn hold
13 Jan 2020Application submitted to the ministry
4 weeks later
7 Feb 2020Posted to the registry and opened for public comment
4 weeks later
8 Mar 2020Public comment closed
4.9 years later
16 Jan 2025Put on hold: a temporary hold
21 months later
30 Oct 2026Forecast made; still waiting
Dates are the ministry's own. Hover over or tap the strip for the dates and how long each stage took.
Where it is
0.5 km
Where in Ontario
The outlined area is the mining claims the application covers, 42 hectares in all.
What the application asks for
Activities
Pitting and trenching of bedrock (over 3 cubic metres within a 200 metre radius)
Mining claims covered
2
Area of those claims
42 hectares
Surroundings
Holds within 50 kilometres in the past year
none held for consultation with an Indigenous nation; none put on a temporary hold
Other exploration plans in circulation within 50 kilometres
2
Workload at the ministry office handling it
25 applications waiting; it decided 61 in the past six months
Applicant
An individual
The applicant’s earlier exploration permits
None before this one
Published Mondays, noon Toronto timeKestrel EconomicsBULLETIN